Post Archive

Июнь 2016

Throughout oil’s torrid rally from the February lows, one major driver of demand — namely China — had been broadly ignored by the punditry which instead focused on supply, whether excess OPEC oversupply or lack thereof, due to production disruptions in Canada or Nigeria. And yet, China and specifically its demand, may have been the elephant in the room all along. Two months ago we reported that «China Is Hoarding Crude At The Fastest Pace On Record», a move which among other things was attributed to China’s aggressively filling up its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. However, just a few weeks ago,

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It was not even a month ago when we last looked at the total amount of negative yielding debt around the globe, and were shocked to find that according to Fitch, for the first time in history (obviously), there was over $10 trillion in negative yielding debt. Fast forward 4 weeks later, and the grand total is now $1.3 trillion higher, or $11.7 trillion. The split between positive and negative yielding debt is shown in the chart below: In a report released earlier, Fitch updates on the «investors’ flight to safe assets following the UK’s EU referendum on June 23»

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The collapse of the Greek economy is almost without precedent. Real household consumption has dropped by 27 per cent since the peak. During the global financial crisis, this figure “only” fell by 6 per cent before rebounding. The combination of mass joblessness, wage cuts, and higher taxes means disposable household incomes have fallen even further. To make up the difference, Greeks have been eating into their savings. In 2006-2009, the personal savings rate averaged about 6 per cent. In 2015, the rate was -6 per cent. The total amount of dis-saving since mid-2011 implies Greek households have eaten into €19bn

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The 10th Anniversary Edition of the “In Gold We Trust” Report As every year at the end of June, our good friends Ronald Stoeferle and Mark Valek, the managers of the Incrementum funds, have released the In Gold We Trust report, one of the most comprehensive and most widely read gold reports in the world. The report can be downloaded further below. The report celebrates its 10th anniversary this year. As always, a wide variety of gold-related topics is discussed, providing readers with a wealth of valuable and intellectually stimulating information. This year’s report inter alia includes a detailed discussion

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Profitability at lenders falls to lowest level since 1999 Outgoing RBI Governor Rajan had campaigned against bad debt Risks to India’s banking industry have “sharply increased” since September as surging bad loans drag lenders’ profitability to the lowest since at least 1999, according to the Reserve Bank of India. Banks’ return on assets fell to 0.4 percent at the end of March from 0.8 percent a year earlier, according to the central bank’s Financial Stability Report released Tuesday. The industry’s gross bad-loan ratio jumped to a 13-year high of 7.6 percent, following a six-month RBI audit of banks’ bad-debt disclosures.

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For those 17-year-old hedge fund managers used to BTFD on hopes corporate buybacks will «have their back» and provide the bid on which momentum-chasing HFT algos will piggyback, we have some bad news and some worse news. The bad news is that we are entering yet another quiet period for buybacks. This means that for the next 45 days, the biggest — and supposedly only — buyer of stocks will be mostly out of the market, and bank buyback desks will not be able to provide much needed support during distressed (read: more sellers than buyers) times. The worse news

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